Lexington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

848
FXUS63 KLMK 240911
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
411 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Saturday morning
  through early Monday morning for a significant winter storm.

* Significant accumulations of snow and sleet across southern
  Indiana and northern Kentucky, and significant accumulations of
  freezing rain, sleet, and snow across southern KY. High
  probabilities of Major impacts through the weekend.

* Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills expected Monday
  through Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 411 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

The Lower Ohio Valley has nearly zonal flow overhead as a split
upper jet merges back together. The southern part of the jet is
flowing around a closed low over Baja California and flowing
northeast through Texas towards the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
This is pushing pooled moisture towards the CWA, which is sitting
under the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. The
aforementioned upper low will get picked up by a shortwave and will
continue moving east as an upper trough.

At the surface, we begin with a surface high centered over the
Midwest. This will keep northeast surface winds and cold air
advection in place, but by Sunday, as the high moves off to the
east, a surface low slides northeast from the Gulf, keeping cold air
advection in place as winds drift towards the northwest over the
CWA.

With all this said, we have moisture moving into the area being
pushed by southwest winds while cold air advection is keeping
temperatures well below freezing at the surface.

Today, there is a lot of dry air in place near the surface, so as
ceilings begin to fall and moisture works into the region, light
snow will likely begin falling during the morning hours, but it
won`t be until the afternoon hours when the dry air is overcome and
heavier snow begins to work into central Kentucky and then southern
Indiana. Expecting all the precipitation today to fall as snow.

Tonight into Sunday, the warm nose, between the 850mb to 700mb
levels, begins to back towards the southwest to south. Warm air
advection in the layer is expected to cause frozen precipitation to
melt above the surface, resulting in sleet and freezing rain, and
with an 850mb low strengthening over the Missouri Bootheel on
Sunday, 850mb winds will strengthen the warm nose. It looks like
most areas south of the parkways will see a mix to a complete change
over to rain for the whole day. With surface temperatures already
below freezing, 0.5 to 0.75" of icing is possible for the Lake
Cumberland area and southwest towards Nashville.

Sunday night, as the 850mb low crosses through Ohio, cold air
advection will return to the level, changing precipitation back to
all snow, but with the system moving off to the east, only a half of
an inch or less of additional snowfall is expected over the CWA.

Overall, snowfall totals were reduced. The heaviest snow totals are
expected along and north of the Ohio River in southern Indiana
towards Cincinnati/northern Kentucky. Ice values were increased over
the Lake Cumberland to Nashville area with most icing expected to
stay south of the parkways.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 411 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

=====================================================================

         Bitterly Cold Temperatures Expected Early Next Week

=====================================================================

After the winter storm clears the region Sunday night, the main
weather impact will shift to bitterly cold temperatures and wind
chills as arctic high pressure sinks into the south central US.
While skies should be clearing during the day on Monday, persistent
10-15 mph W/NW winds will cause temperatures to struggle to reach
double digits, with daytime (!) wind chill values likely between 5
below and 5 above zero.

The peak of the cold air is expected Monday night into Tuesday
morning, with cold temperatures being amplified in areas with a deep
snowpack. Ensemble probabilities of low temperatures below zero are
roughly 60-80% across the area, with probabilities of low
temperatures below -10 ranging from 10-30%. The only limiting factor
for colder temperatures Tuesday morning will be strengthening SW
winds as a clipper system moves well NW of the region. However,
stronger winds would only lead to colder wind chills, with -10 to -
20 minimum wind chills likely Monday night. As the previous
forecaster mentioned, we`re almost certainly looking at reaching
cold weather advisory criteria, and extreme cold warning-level wind
chills are possible.

Temperatures will moderate during the day on Tuesday thanks to SW
winds, but only into the low-to-mid 20s. No significant warm up is
expected through all of next week as upper shortwaves dive across
the eastern half of North America as the polar vortex remains weak
and allows for subsequent intrusions of arctic air. There has now
been a persistent signal in medium-range guidance that a stronger
shortwave Wednesday into Wednesday night may bring a clipper system
into the Ohio Valley. While total QPF amounts with this system are
very modest (most progs show only a few hundredths), the very cold
air mass would allow for elevated snow-liquid ratios that could
support light accumulating snow. Not a major winter storm by any
means, but something to look out for during the middle of next week.
Beyond this system, more dry and cold weather is expected for the
end of the week, with another shot at sub-zero low temperatures
possible Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 104 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions will last through the overnight period, but as a
winter storm approaches the region impacts should be expected. For
tomorrow, we`re expecting mostly snow except for towards the end of
the period when a mix could make it as far north as BWG. At first
when snow begins minimal impacts can be expected with ceilings and
visibilities remaining in VFR levels, but once the column saturates
and snow increases during the early afternoon, lowering ceilings and
reduced visibilities should be expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...KDW